The Washington Post (4/24, H. Sun) reports a study published in JAMA says that the US “faces millions of measles cases over the next 25 years if vaccination rates for the disease drop 10 percent.” Nathan Lo, a Stanford physician and author of the study, said, “Our country is on a tipping point for measles to once again become a common household disease.” He warns that at current state-level vaccination rates, mathematical models used by the researchers predict that measles could become entrenched, resulting in “hundreds of thousands of cases, where deaths are commonplace and hospitalizations are happening all the time.” While the study found that “a small uptick in vaccination – a 5 percent increase in state-level rates – would prevent huge increases in measles cases,” Lo said he “fears that the most likely scenario is that childhood vaccination rates will continue to decline and the cumulative number of infections will rise sharply.” Reuters (4/24, Lapid) reports the study concluded that if rates of MMR vaccination “were to decline by 10%, an estimated 11.1 million cases of measles would result over 25 years.” The modeling also looked at scenarios for other vaccine-preventable diseases that have been eradicated. For example, “if vaccination rates drop by 35%, rubella will likely become endemic, while polio, which has long been eradicated in the U.S., has a 50-50 chance of making a comeback if vaccination drops by 40%.” Meanwhile, the CDC said Thursday in its weekly report that total US measles “cases through April 17 represent about a 180% increase over the 285 cases reported in all of 2024 – the second highest annual U.S. case count in 25 years.”